Tag loss can bias Jolly-Seber capture-recapture estimates

Citation

McDonald, T. L., S. C. Amstrup, and B. F. J. Manly (2003). “Tag loss can bias Jolly-Seber capture-recapture estimates”. In: Wildlife Society Bulletin 31.3, pp. 814-822. URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3784604.

Number of Citations: 57

Keywords

capture-recapture, Cormack marking, Jolly-Seber, open populations, population size, resight, survival rates, tagging

Abstract

We identified cases where the Jolly-Seber estimator of population size is biased under tag loss and tag-induced mortality by examining the mathematical arguments and performing computer simulations. We found that, except under certain tag-loss models and high sample sizes, the population size estimators (uncorrected for tag loss) are severely biased high when tag loss or tag-induced mortality occurs. Our findings verify that this misconception about effects of tag loss and tag-induced mortality could have serious consequences for field biologists interested in population size. Reiterating common sense, we encourage those engaged in capture–recapture studies to be careful and humane when handling animals during tagging, to use tags with high retention rates, to double-tag animals when possible, and to strive for the highest capture probabilities possible.